Never a good time to allow the altering of borders by force
Is Europe going to follow President Zelensky’s example and continue to reject the Putin–Trump pact?
The current geopolitical moment is often compared to Chamberlain’s betrayal of Czechoslovakia in 1938. But there is another point in history that could be used as an example equally well.
In 1944, Stalin, sensing victory approaching, demanded that part of Poland be recognised by the Allies as part of the Soviet Union. Instead of rejecting the demands, the Allies ultimately put pressure on the Poles to accept Stalin’s redrawn borders. Sounds familiar.
When Polish Prime Minister Mikołajczyk refused to accept the ultimatum, Churchill exploded:
“You are no Government if you are incapable of taking any decision. You are callous people who want to wreck Europe and then to run away to your own troubles… What did you put into the common pool? You may withdraw your divisions if you like. You are absolutely incapable of facing facts. Never in my life have I seen such people.”
The British Prime Minister was basically calling the Poles selfish for demanding the preservation of the Polish state. But the Allies had no excuse for leaving Poland to the Soviet Union, betraying a country that had sacrificed so much for the freedom of Europe.
What President Trump is doing with Putin should come as no surprise. He never hid the fact that he intends to have a “deal” with Putin. He has shown little interest in what that would mean for Ukraine or for European security. The doing of the deal was always his sole interest. Putin was ready to oblige, but only if the deal was on his terms. Currently he wants part of Ukraine. But his ultimate goal has never changed: he will be going after Ukraine’s – and, when he sees a chance, Europe’s – jugular.
And here we are, reading Putin’s script in a Putin–Trump pact.
It is also easy to predict what Ukraine might do with this. President Zelensky’s position looks clear: he rejects the pact; there is no way Ukraine can accept a capitulation. Not while it is still able to fight and still has allies that can support that fight.
The unanswered question is what Europe is prepared to do now.
Is Europe going to follow President Zelensky’s example and continue to reject the Putin–Trump pact? I am sure there are those who already think that pressing Ukraine to give up is the best path forward. Some might even think Ukrainians are “callous” for making demands. From the point of view of a war-weary western decisionmaker, the Trump-Putin pact might seem tempting. It might achieve a ceasefire, no matter how temporary, they ponder. It makes the war somebody else’s problem, they say to themselves. And, they say, we need to do what we can to appease President Trump, especially if he were to threaten to abandon Europe.
To proponents of the messy redrawing of borders I say: we have been here before. One of the most shameful moments of the Second World War was the abandonment of allies – friends – who fought alongside the Brits and the Americans, leaving them for decades of debilitating Soviet rule, because it was “expedient”, or as they used to say, “there was nothing we could have done.”
That defeatist shrugging isn’t so convincing this time. We all know there are things we can do. We can help Ukraine. We can treat Ukraine as a true ally that has been fighting not just alongside us, but for us. There would be no hiding behind empty words. Whereas, endorsing the pact or pressuring Ukraine to accept it would bring generational shame.
Victors avoid judgement – that is why we seldom remember the words of Churchill to Mikołajczyk. But Europe is not a victor right now; it is on the path to be the next victim. So, if nothing else, self-preservation must kick in, convincing European countries that allowing the alteration of borders by force would be a suicidal move.
And in the end, the Trump-Putin pact’s power depends on others supporting it. The honourable thing to do would be not to support it. If Europe stands with Ukraine, the pact will last for just a short moment in Alaska.
I am inexperienced at Statecraft but I have been told, over and over, that Ukraine fights for all of us. Not just to defeat a flesh and blood adversary, a leader whose people boast their country has no borders, but to defend Western civilization's chosen path. My grandparents generation and them before them came back from war and decided there must be law to govern countries' interactions, no more spheres of influence, no more might makes right. They chose the Rule of Law.
If we capitulate to the American president and his buddy, in any demand at all, we lose all of that. A ceasefire will do nothing but buy Putin time to rearm. He has no future unless we give him one. His economy is crumbling, he has no real army and he's running out of meat grinder material so fast he plans to field the oldest of the Ukrainian boys he kidnapped.... We have 300 billion of his ill gotten gains. Where is our advantage to let him have anything?
Great clarity on your call to action. And glad you introduced the historical comparison. Churchill's callous disregard for Poland gave Stalin the great light his next plan. The parallels with Trump are scary.
I think we will see as split response from Europe, again demonstrating our weakness. Personally I would be using tariffs as leverage to stop Trump signing the shift of Ukrainian land to a country led by a war criminal..But what do I know.After all man so desperate to the Nobel Peace will do anything for it, just like did everything to keep Stalin happy.